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35 replies

Lead time completely off base--and cost me an item

A airplanenutMember
Hi,

I have a lead time set to 4 seconds, and just watched my second item in two days end... with the bid placed some 40 seconds before the auction ended. Because of this, on the more recent item, the runner-up had a chance to up his bid with a last-minute additional snipe. If the bid were placed anywhere close to the auction end, I would have won. What happened? Auctionsniper used to work so well... and now this!
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rickrickMember
Hi airplanenut,

I don’t see the issue as whether another sniper did, could-of, might-of, or should-of had enough time to respond to your snipe within the 40 seconds, NOR is it relevant that someone else’s snipes were placed on time, BUT the issue is that since you specified 4 seconds, why was it 40? I could suggest that you contact AS’ support, but they’ll give you a canned response about fluctuating response times, or that ebay’s computers had a brief case of hardening of the arteries.

This issue comes up semi-frequently. AS adjusts the lead-time based on *its* evaluation of the current response time from ebay. In “theory”, during the close of your auction, AS determined that it would need to place your snipe much earlier so as to get the snipe in “around” 4 seconds. Perhaps something changed in the last few seconds and it wasn’t necessary for AS to place your snipe that early. One way (maybe the only one) to find out is to contact the winning bidder and see if they placed a manual snipe, and see if they experienced a delayed response.

These earlier snipes tend to be on weekend evenings, or auctions that end on the exact quarter hour – these are times when ebay’s traffic is higher than normal.

AS has decided that it is more important to get the snipe placed, even if it’s 36, or 46, or 56 seconds early, than to risk running out of time by placing the snipe when the user requested it. It’s a judgment call on AS’ part. Most of the times AS hits the target, but there are time, such as this, when it places the snipe early. My preference is early is better than not at all, but not everyone agrees with that.

For what it’s worth, I have seen “hiccups” in ebay’s response time, that never get mentioned on ebay’s System Announcements page.
A airplanenutMember
quote:
- might have won, it's not the last bid, it's the highest that wins...

I'm going to assume I would have won, because the second place bidder got another bid in just before the auction ended. My assumption is, had he not been outbid at any point, he wouldn't have bid a second time, while currently high bidder.

Rick--that's a fair point, but I'm using AS now because my connection isn't great... but it's fine to snipe within about a 10 second frame. For what AS did, I could have easily done better, even on this slower connection.

Jeremy
C chatterMember
quote:
I'm going to assume I would have won, because the second place bidder got another bid in just before the auction ended. My assumption is, had he not been outbid at any point, he wouldn't have bid a second time, while currently high bidder.

That is just the point--this is only an assumption, and hardly a sure bet at that. There is a pretty good chance that the winning bidder was a sniper, just like yourself, and was planning to make his bid in the last few seconds, regardless of any other bids, just as you did

It's a bummer, but most of the time things will work out very nicely with AS. Wink
A airplanenutMember
quote:
That is just the point--this is only an assumption, and hardly a sure bet at that. There is a pretty good chance that the winning bidder was a sniper, just like yourself, and was planning to make his bid in the last few seconds, regardless of any other bids, just as you did

I disagree. I'll write it out more clearly. With a minute left, Bidder 1 is winning the item. AS places my bid with about 40 seconds left, and I take the lead. Bidder 1 comes back, seeing he's been outbid, and places one more bid and wins.

Bidder 1 was ALREADY in the lead, and likely wouldn't have bid again had he not seen that he was outbid. This is, of course, the whole point of sniping... but in this case, there was way too much lead time to call the bid a snipe.
rickrickMember
quote:
Originally posted by Chatter:
There is a pretty good chance that the winning bidder was a sniper, just like yourself, and was planning to make his bid in the last few seconds, regardless of any other bids, just as you did
“That is just the point—this is only an assumption.”



quote:
Originally posted by airplanenut:
For what AS did, I could have easily done better, even on this slower connection.
Yes, Jeremy, 40 seconds is too early. The reason we snipe is to avoid encouraging other bidders to bid against us. This is such a sniping fundamental, that I struggle to understand why others don’t understand it. 40 seconds is enough for most anyone, even R2, to respond to someone else’s bid.

You’ll notice that the responses on this thread are what could be called smoke-and-mirrors. Instead of responding to the issue that your snipe was placed 36 seconds early, everything BUT that is discussed. It’s the standard-AS-forum-users’ response. “It’s not the last snipe”; “My snipes work”; “The other sniper used a service so regardless you would have lost” – smoke and mirrors. “That is odd”; “might have won”; “There is a pretty good chance” – standard smoke and mirrors. Trust me on this: come back in a couple of months and you’ll see pretty much the same responses, AND, “there is a pretty good chance” they’ll even be from the same users.

Jeremy, having been through this issue more times then I can justify by responding with just a cliché, as those above, you SHOULD expect to receive input as to why your snipe was not placed with the lead-time that you requested. For some reason, some, or most, of the regulars on this forum feel compelled to address that with comments that have nothing to do with the actual issue, that being, “WHY WAS MY SNIPE PLACE 36 SECONDS EARLY?” For some reason, some, or most, of the regulars on this forum feel that a user is in the wrong to inquire as to why their snipe wasn’t placed at the requested lead-time. I suspect that the other forum users are suffering from some forum of burn out, and instead of justifying, or even discussing, WHY the snipe was placed early, they are retreating to the tried-and-proven responses that shutdown such inquires.

I hope you stick with AS, but I hope you stick with it for the right reasons.

To the forum regulars – I know this is asking a lot, but can’t you just once be a little more creative, and god forbid, relevant?

To Jeremy - I suspect this is more drama than you wanted.
cameracameraMember
quote:
To the forum regulars – I know this is asking a lot, but can’t you just once be a little more creative, and god forbid, relevant?


Us not relevant? How could you be so cruel?

We have spent years polishing our styles so that we can avoid the main points without anyone noticing and you come bursting in here, openly critical of our sublime art form.

The heading simply says "forum". The topic titles are merely markers for the owners of the board. They are wage slaves, we are free spirits.

Now what was the question?


Paul


P.S. My snipes are being placed normally, so from my position on this flat earth, everything is quite OK and the elephant and turtles are doing their job of holding us up quite correctly.

P.P.S. I hope you are well Rick. Not suffering from an attack of the "twinging screws" or "nervous dyspepsia" are you? Must be the sun. That almost qualified as a proper gold plated 100% "Rant"

Hooray brother you are nearly one of us! Welcome to the Raving Nutters Club!!
mrsmmrsmMember
quote:
To Jeremy - I suspect this is more drama than you wanted.

Eek

If someone told me their snipes are all firing off ok and I had been using AS for a while, if I were that person, I would probably then contact AS directly!.. And, since AS doesn't send me a paycheck, nor does anyone else come to think of it...... let a smile be your umbrellaSmile
rickrickMember
Paul - There are times, not often, that you crack me up. This was one of them.



quote:
Originally posted by Mrs.M:
If someone told me their snipes are all firing off ok and I had been using AS for a while, if I were that person, I would probably then contact AS directly!
AND, if someone told me that since they recently visited Nagasaki and didn’t die from an atomic bomb that that somehow proved that an atomic bomb wasn’t dropped, I would say, “Irrelevant!” I would also consider the creditability of the source of such a comment. If (that’s a big IF) airplanenut had been bidding on a couple of auctions for girl’s apparel (sizes 5 and 6) for around $5, I might, MIGHT, see the relevance.

Airplanenut’s issue isn’t what is happening to other people whose experience has absolutely no bearing on his situation, but (big BUT) with snipes being placed 36 seconds early. It’s not about if it’s the first, or last, or biggest bid. It’s not about speculating what might have happened. What happened was that the snipe was placed 36 seconds early, and his question is “Why?”. Checking on his first post he did ask, “What happened?” I don’t see where he asked most of the questions that were answered.

This issue (very early bids) has come up several times, and since the forum’s intent is to actually help people (that may be some wild idea on my part) instead of misleading them, or bringing up information that isn’t applicable, it only makes sense to address this issue, on this forum, and actually discuss “the issue”. Yes, he could contact support, but that will most like result in the standard, canned response, and definitely won’t be as entertaining, at least for me.

Perhaps some of the forum regulars suffer from nerve damage between the eyes and the brain that doesn’t allow comprehending “early” and “bid” in the same sentence, let alone grasping the concept of “36 seconds”. In the hopes that this is a color related dysfunction, let me try the following experiment:
“WHY WAS MY SNIPE PLACED 36 SECONDS EARLY?”
I’ll keep my fingers crossed, but don’t think I will hold my breath.



quote:
Originally posted by Camera:
P.P.S. I hope you are well Rick.
Moderately well, but after my above rant (it’s not healthy to hold things in for 4 years), feeling very nicely, thank you.



I can hear them now: “I wish he would just go away.”
cameracameraMember
quote:
I can hear them now: “I wish he would just go away.”


Why? If you went, that would only leave four "old timers" to answer all those 1001 questions about why Auction Sniper's Sunday auto advance feature is not as accurate as it should be.

So perhaps it is time to tell the truth, relieve your burden and provide a definitive answer to all those who are disatisfied with the service.

It's like this:

Downtown Chico, late Sunday Night. A shuffling figure comes down Broadway's sidewalk, crosses the road and enters 119. It is quite a shabby building, in contrast to its neighbours, paintwork peeling, door one of those cheap fireboard and wood constructions, wedged somewhat precariously between Sonya's Massage Parlour and the Wung Ton Chinese laundry.

He inserts his key, gives the door a kick to free it from the frame and walks in. Upstairs, operator Dan is just going off shift and is in a great hurry to hand over (as usual). Nothing much is said - the routine is known. 8,000 bids on a peak night and all the operator has to do is monitor the dial that says "ebay current bid delay" and transfer that value to the master control dial on the four bid placing computers. This is done every five minutes in peak period, but less frequently - perhaps every 30 minutes or so - as the night progresses.

Our operator settles down to another busy Sunday night. About two hours into the shift, he feels hungry and gets his sandwiches out. Tonight, as usual, he feels it is time for a coffee.
"Damn" "nearly time for the value to be transferred"

Now I ask you - if you are thirsty and the choice was between getting a nice warm cup of coffee and advancing all the bids just by a minute or two, what would you choose?

Paul

I hope that provides the complete answer to all your questions about AS's early bids.

See Rick, I too, can be helpful & informative!
rickrickMember
quote:
8,000 bids on a peak night and all the operator has to do is monitor the dial that says "ebay current bid delay" and transfer that value to the master control dial on the four bid placing computers.
It’s a start, Paul; it’s a start. Remember – baby steps.



PaulScript – At least your post was original.



quote:
See Rick, I too, can be helpful & informative!
Some day this will all be yours.
region2region2Member
quote:
hard to tell unless you let us have the auction number...

quote:
If the bid were placed anywhere close to the auction end, I would have won
- might have won, it's not the last bid, it's the highest that wins...

R2

Rick

I take umbrage at your comments, my reply was a direct response to the original poster's comments in that I asked for the auction number and I pointed out that he might rather than would have won.

So, instead of attacking the (ir)regulars, why not get onto AS and have them frequent this forum more regularly and respond to problems more quickly. And improve AS's FAQs etc etc...

R2
mrsmmrsmMember
quote:
Rick

I take umbrage at your comments, my reply was a direct response to the original poster's comments in that I asked for the auction number and I pointed out that he might rather than would have won.

So, instead of attacking the (ir)regulars, why not get onto AS and have them frequent this forum more regularly and respond to problems more quickly. And improve AS's FAQs etc etc...

Smile
cameracameraMember
quote:
Some day this will all be yours.



Dear Rick,

I have given a great deal of consideration to your employment offer of the 26th July.

After due deliberation I must, reluctantly, turn down this opportunity to further my career in Public Relations on the AS forum.

It was good of you to give me advance notification of this vacancy, but in reality I lack the basic intellectual skills to carry out the task effectively. I also do not own the necessary essential equipment (flak jacket, sub-machine gun, bomb disposal tracked robot etc) for the persuance of such a career.

Thank you for your interest in me. I will keep your email on file and should such a window of opportunity occur in the future, please do not hesitate to contact me agaim.

yours sincerely,

Camera
rickrickMember
quote:
Originally posted by region2:
'Mrs R2' is a Miss and I'm certain that she'd leave the room if she found her self in such a 'predicament'...
R2 - should this, or any Miss R2, become a Mrs. R2, AND the longer she’s stays Mrs. R2, AND you don’t find a way to circumvent the aging process, either the two of you won’t be spending much time in the same room or she’ll not consider it a ‘predicament’.

Remember, love is never having to leave the room before farting.



As a kind of funny side note: My car wouldn’t start this morning. So, I went over to Roger, my neighbor. In previous conversations he has told me that he has a lot of experience fixing cars. So, I naturally thought he could give me some advice. When I told him my car wouldn’t start, he said, “That is odd. I have started my car several times in the last few days without any problems.” I’m sure that was just a coincidence, but just in case it wasn’t: “Hey, Roger, have you been reading this thread?”



quote:
Originally posted by Rick:
slightly muffled, slightly scented fart
My apologies, R2, I should have posted, “greatly muffled”. That would explain the use of 'predicament' (I've already looked up the definition for 'predicament').
rickrickMember
quote:
Originally posted by Camera:
And you a good Catholic boy!
Wasn’t that the cause of all, or most of, the wars between England and all the other European countries, in that England wasn’t Catholic? (Mary Queen of Scots, Ireland, Spain, France, et al). Especially confusing since it’s Sir R2 (maybe it’s Duke R2 or Lord R2).



quote:
Originally posted by airplanenut:
I'm here
Just checking, Jeremy, to see if you were still around.



quote:
Originally posted by Camera:
I'm afraid you'll have to excuse Rick ....... you see .................. he's American!
Sad, but true (only by birth). Don’t forget, Paul, that Churchill was half-Yank (I think Mummy Churchill was from Wyoming). Geography is everything.
rickrickMember
Old post:
quote:
As someone who really has his own listing in Debretts Peerage and Baronetage I've read this thread with amusement (although my bladder is still under control)...

R2 (Not my real name so don't waste your time looking it up!)
Isn’t a peer or a baron considered “titled”? I’m not fighting it, as I’d rather not have to kneel all the time.



I did check the following and didn’t see a Baron R2:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Baronies
J jabbergahMember
Two things:

- Purely anecdotal - It seems AS's auto-lead-time-adjusting feature adversely affects mainly users who set lead times to the little numbers, like 7 seconds or less. I set my leads in the low to mid teens and NEVER recall having my snipe times adjusted to the extremes reported by by the <5 second snipers.

- One thread of this topic reminds me of the story of the little old lady that went to her doctor for an embarrassing problem. "I have 'silent gas'," she explained to her doctor. "I can be at church, at the grocery store, at the movie theater, anywhere! -- and I can't help myself -- I just have to pass gas! I'm just so thankful it's always 'silent'! Why, just while I've been explaining this problem to you, I have had 3 episodes and I bet you didn't even realize it!" "First things first, my dear," the doctor replied. "The first thing we need to do is to check your hearing!" Eek Big Grin
rickrickMember
quote:
Originally posted by Jabbergah:
It seems AS's auto-lead-time-adjusting feature adversely affects mainly users who set lead times to the little numbers, like 7 seconds or less. I set my leads in the low to mid teens and NEVER recall having my snipe times adjusted to the extremes reported by by the <5 second snipers.
That’s a good point, and looking over many (not ALL) of the threads about early snipes, they WERE from users that specified the lower lead times.

Then again, there’s a possibility that someone that would specify a 15-second lead time wouldn’t be upset, or concerned, about an additional 10 or 15 seconds, whereas someone that specified 3 seconds might be more motivated to start a thread about the extra 10 or 15 seconds. And, for the sniper that specified 15 seconds, a 15-second snipe would be spot on, yet for the sniper that specified 3 seconds, a 15-second snipe could be “unnerving”. The user’s expectations might have some, or a big, influence.

Also, I suspect prices (and rarity) have an impact. It’s possible there would be less competition for a $9 item then for a $900 item, and for the more expensive items it might justify a manual sniper to monitor the end of the auctions more closely, which could encourage a retaliatory snipe. On a $9 item, a competing (retaliatory) sniper might raise the price $1 while on the $900 item another sniper might raise the price $100. A hundred here and a hundred there – it starts to add up. A bidding war is a bidding war (and nibblers are nibblers), whether it’s a war (or nibbling) during the last few days of the auction or the last few seconds.

Probably too many variables on the various ebay auctions to come to any consistent conclusions.

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