Why bidding in the last second is not best

I don’t think there is an optimum – just lesser degrees of imperfection. With your experience of 8-second “serial late nibblers”, something less than 8 might be more comforting for you?

If you haven’t already seen this, here’s what AS thinks is “ideal”:
>> here <<

quote:

Given that a bid can be too late, but an early bid allows a response, what is the optimum time to place that winning snipe?

Well, I use 8 seconds, normally, and have never had one not placed nor have I had someone place a bid after mine. That, for me at least, is optimum!

quote:

With your experience of 8-second “serial late nibblers”,

8 seconds is the shortest interval I have seen between two successive bids by the same bidder. I don't consider a response to a bid 8 seconds before auction end at all likely. I have not experimented at all, so I don't know how long someone with a fast connection would need to have a 20% chance of:
1. Discovering they have been outbid.
2. Immediately reacting by attempting a higher bid.
3. Typing in the bid. (RTN)
4. Confirming the bid. (RTN)
5. Having their bid accepted before auction end.
I think as much as 15-20 seconds might be needed.

So, to answer my own question -
Given that an earlier bid/snipe up to two bidding increments below my snipe might block it, I think the optimum snipe time may be as much as 10-20 seconds before auction end, but auction sniper usually places my bids 2-3 seconds earlier than I ask for. Hence I should ask for 7-15 seconds, but is 7 or 15 better? I guess the answer is simply to check the timings used by other snipers on items I like and aim to be 2 seconds earlier.

Hopefully Chatter will chime in. He has certainly had enough experience in the matter!

Optimum – the amount or degree of something that is most favorable to some end

quote:

Originally posted by Rosetsu:
Given that a bid can be too late, but an early bid allows a response, what is the optimum time to place that winning snipe?

This quote points out a struggle in sniping; there is a conflict between two “ends” – winning and price. If winning is the primary objective, then a very high proxy bid, well in advance of the auction’s closing, would be the “safest” solution. There is always a possibility of an ebay meltdown or some worm (remote, but possible). There is always a possibility that ebay made some change that will prevent AS placing the snipe, or even hardware/software problems on AS’ part. There is always a possibility that your ebay account has added security that prevents AS from sniping. Once a proxy bid is placed, it’s there to stay (unless retracted or cancelled).

If price is the primary objective, then the closer to auction end time the better. But, there are too many variables to know what is the best lead-time. How long does it take someone/anyone to actually place a retaliatory snipe? If 2 minutes before end-of-auction response time is 30 seconds, what will be the response time 30, or 10, seconds before the end? Does the auction close during a peak time? If it does, will the response time be impacted? If it doesn’t, will the response time still be impacted?

quote:

Originally posted by Rosetsu:
I have not experimented at all, so I don't know how long someone with a fast connection would need to have a 20% chance of:
1. Discovering they have been outbid.
2. Immediately reacting by attempting a higher bid.
3. Typing in the bid. (RTN)
4. Confirming the bid. (RTN)
5. Having their bid accepted before auction end.
I think as much as 15-20 seconds might be needed.

Here’s one person’s experience with the time it takes to snipe:
>> here <<

quote:

Originally posted by Rosetsu:
Hence I should ask for 7-15 seconds, but is 7 or 15 better?

Again, is the preference winning or price? For my priorities, I would go with 15. I’d rather take a last-second nibbler’s hit and give my snipe a better chance of getting in.

quote:

Originally posted by Rosetsu:
I guess the answer is simply to check the timings used by other snipers on items I like and aim to be 2 seconds earlier.

No way of knowing if their snipe was placed early by their service. No way of knowing about snipes not in time. No way of knowing about snipes with bids too low.

The price of an item is also a major factor. An item at 99 cents, or $9.99, isn’t going to have the same dynamics as something at $99.99 or $999.99. The lower priced items typically don’t have that much competition, and they aren’t that rare and will appear again.

I hate to be vague, but there are different variables, and priorities. AS recommends 5 to 12 seconds. You’ve been on AS for a very respectable amount of time, so I’m reluctant to just say “Use 12!”

Let us know what you decide, and do let us know your results.

Hi,
The other thread suggests that the really keen manual sniper has a good chance of managing a response to a bid at 6 seconds. That is 4 seconds for the refresh reporting the bid (assuming the sniper sees a refresh every 2-3 seconds), a second to hit the button and a second for Ebay to deal with it. However, I am not sure I believe that and the probability that it would fail is quite high. In any case, I believe the number of people waiting like that is low.

I will stick with my current 11 seconds on Sunday night (not on the hour etc.), which is actually 12-14 seconds. I think the chance that I lose an item because of a successful reaction to my bids is as low as the chance that I win an item because I bid before another sniper.

Before AS I would manually snipe in the last five seconds, also by keeping two browsers open. You have to be very quick with the mouse and have a fast, reliable connection. I never lost an auction that way, but I was glued to my computer waaaay too much.

Even with the suggested lead times, I do sometimes miss winning with AS, but prefer to lose rather than be pushed little by little to my max bid.

I have been away this weekend, so I am late in chiming in.

Though we, as snipers, do bid in the last half minute or so, we must not focus on getting the bid in with the lowest possible number of seconds remaining, as mentioned above. Anyone bidding at this late stage PLANS to snipe, and will do so with his full amount. Yes, people with DSL have bid with four or five seconds left, but doing so carries a great risk. Last night I sniped two auctions manually, just for the heck of it. When I did so with forty seconds left, it worked, even though I was asked for my password (and I am ALWAYS signed in), I had enough time. On the other auction, I sniped manually with 17 seconds left, got the password screen and entered that, but it was too late.

Anyway, with four AS snipes that worked, I raised my succesful AS total to 990.

I have been shut out before trying to manually snipe at 45 seconds using dsl. So, it does vary. However, I have never been shut out using AS with 8 seconds during normal times or when I add on for busy times.

quote:

Originally posted by Rosetsu:
I think the chance that I lose an item because of a successful reaction to my bids is as low as the chance that I win an item because I bid before another sniper.

I think that's good thinking.