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Been thinking about this for a few days, and can't make up my mind. Confused What do you think ?

VERY rare and expensive item on eBay. Not uncommon to go 6 months and STILL not see one. As it happens, there are two identical items currently listed.

The first ends tomarrow, has 47 bids but 29 of them are consecutive bids by a nibbler who finally gave up. This is a reserve auction. *** The next auction ends in three days. 20 bids, Not a reserve.

I am SURE everyone is watching both. (collectable) What do I do? Bid on the first and also have a shot at the second? If I don't win or meet the reserve, might that give my max away for the second? If I pass on the first I only get one shot instead of two?

Any advice is welcome. (as long as I don't HAVE to take it)........Thanx.

Last edited {1}
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Puppy posted:
quote:
...the exact item is rare, but the type of item is common, and often draws snipers.


Umm...so would you consider it a common rare item or a rare common item? Wink LOL! Big Grin

Since this item has a uniqueness, doesn't show up that often on ebay, it definitely should be considered a "rare" item and competitive bidding expected.

#1) I would e-mail seller#1 to see if he'll share what reserve is. Maybe will, maybe won't, but won't know if don't ask. Useful piece of info to have. If current proxy bid is over reserve, nevermind!

#2) Since there are 20-30 bidders circling 2 items, whether you bid in 1st auction or not, the upward price pressure in the 2nd auction will be present. I would guess the final price in the second auction may have a good chance of being higher than in the first. I say, like the others, bid in both auctions.

#3) Proxy bidding. Tend to agree with others - avoid. UNLESS you want to try to "establish a pattern"! i.e. nibble a couple times in the FIRST auction before finally sniping. Then if you don't win the first auction, DON'T nibble in the second auction -- ONLY snipe! That way, your competitive bidders in the 2nd auction may think you've gone away since you didn't nibble on the 2nd auction like you did on the first. If you ONLY snipe the first auction & lose, they'll KNOW you're in the game for the 2nd, no matter what!...Or am I OVER-STRATEGIZING here? Wink

#4) Is this the item you missed out on in November, with the seller cancelling auction? My guess the reserve auction might be that seller relisting? Confused

#5) Don't keep us in suspense! Eek Let us know how it turns out. Smile

Jabbergah                                                    
Last edited {1}
I'm a collector as well, and every now and then I see something very rare. First question I always ask myself - is do I think the rest of the bidders know how rare it is?

If I don't think everyone knows then I'd really focus on the first action. Because once that one's over then everyone will know and I agree that the second one will probably go higher.

You've got plent of time in between auctions to adjust plans. I wouldn't even worry about the second, just place a placeholder snipe so you can reevaluate after the first one.

What's the history of the seller? Do they have a lot of similar items up for bid and is likely to know the value? Or do their items indicate that they might not likely know? This gives you an idea of where the reserve price might be.

Just a few random thoughts
I agree, the price of the second will probably exceed that of the first. Since there are so many bidders, what I do in the first auction will have little (if any) impact on what happens in the second. Every bidder knows it is a rare item. The hard part is fixing an actual dollar amount to the desire to have it.

I've decided what I'm willing to spend, and suspect I may be outbid on both. Lots of people have deeper pockets than I do.

I'll either win or lose. If I don't bid, I'm SURE to lose.

quote:
Jabber:
Is this the item you missed out on in November
No.

Since these two auctions ended so close together and with identical items, and since they are rare, and since they appear to be pulling in the same bidders, I'm curious to find out if it appears that one auction has impacted the other. The fact that the first auction had a reserve-not-met might have caused bidders to increase, or decrease, their bids.

1) Which auction had the highest closing price and by what approximate percent?

2) Did any bidder(s) increase, or decrease, their bid amount and by what approximate percent?

I'm assuming the auctions have comparable terms - shipping, payment method, etc.?
FYI I lost the second auction to another bidder. Frown (those people have to much money !)

Since I was the high bidder in the first (reserve not met) and not in the second, to compare the two, I will do it as if I had not bid on either.

Reserve auction would have ended at $901.25

The second would have ended at $960.00 6%+

One final note. In the second auction, there were three bids placed by two bidders. Neither bid on the reserve auction. Discounting both of them, the price would still have been $918.00

Looking at the items on eBay WITH my bids the latter auction ended 12% higher than the first.

I have only just come across this interesting discussion. I don't have $900 to spend Frown, so I am pretty tight with my money, proud that I am second bidder much more often than highest bidder, even when I snipe!

You seem to be on course for both of my preferred strategies:
1. Place the highest bid below the reserve on the reserve auction and see if you can make a deal.
OR 2. Wait for the item with a reserve to be relisted.
Wink
Good Luck!

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