Deciphering Opponent's Bidding Strategy

Shellstoop, your opponent may not be sniping at all. Looks as though she may be using eBay's "Proxy Bid" system to beat you.

In the first place, the whole reason for sniping is not to tip your hand by bidding *anything* until the last seconds of an auction. That's what makes me think your opposition isn't sniping. You wrote, "Lastly, I'm fairly certain she has sniping software, because she often shows two bids in bidding history; both for the very same amount when the auction is ended. The final bid is dated the day before the auction ends, and the final bid & original bid are identical. Obviously we're talking here about auctions where no one challenges her! But she still uses a strategy nonetheless!"

She bids once, and seeing that she has the high bid, she bids another amount above her first bid. This creates the effect you described in your highest-bids-first example. Your bid was higher than her first bid, but her second bid, placed on August 30, was sufficient to outbid you by the bidding increment for that level: 25 cents. The bid that topped your $3.56 offer was placed automatically by eBay on her behalf (a "proxy bid"), so all you know is that her August 30 bid was at least 25 cents higher than your offer. In those auctions where she isn't contested by another bidder, eBay will show the same amount for both of her bids, even though her second bid was higher. This is because you can't outbid yourself on eBay. All you ever need to win is the least amount necessary to be one bid increment above your *opponent's* bid.

All of which brings me to suggest that: (a) you should not bid anything "on the record" in an auction until the closing seconds of that auction; and (b) you should always, always, always snipe-bid with the maximum amount you want to spend on the item. Most of the time you'll find that you get the item for less than that amount; some of the time you'll be glad you bid your maximum, and in those few times where you lose the auction, you'll have the satisfaction of knowing that someone paid more for the item than you were willing to spend.

Sorry I couldn't get back to you by the time this morning's auction went down, but now you know how to "read" the bidding history.

Steve

Hi Steve:
Thanks for the advice. I did just that! By the way, I was off on the time. Got your message in time; my auction ended 8:24. I put my maximum bid and won this time against her. Yeah!!!

Now for another similar question. I did what you suggested on another Print I really wanted. The current bid was $14.49, and I did my snipe at $35.27 at 7 seconds to be sure I'd win. Another bidder came in with $36.27 in the last 4 seconds and beat me out. Yeow! That hurt!

This bidder wins a lot! I have my eye on another Print in 6 days with the same seller. I'll just bet this same bidder's laying in wait to outbid me again! What can I do in regards to my snipe to be sure I win?I'm going to watch the bidding before the end date (of course), but he snuck in in the final seconds, so that doesn't tell me what he's up too! Do I put a rediculously high Max Bidout there with 5 seconds? That's my strategy. If I understand proxy bidding correctly, he has to bid over my Max bid to be considered, period!If he does, he's stuck paying the exhorbitant price, not me. Is there anything I'm overlooking here? Is there a way I will get stuck paying the exhorbitantly high price? That's what I don't want to happen!! I want to get the Print for as little money as possible (the first bid price is $14.49 -- no bidders yet). I realize if there is bidding ahead of time, say even a price bidding war, the price could shoot up. I will watch for that. If the price gets even too high for me, I have the option to remove my snipe. I just want to know of a way, to thwart this particular bidder for now. Am I on the right track?

Thanks in advance for your knowledgeable input. ~shellstoop

Hi shellstoop, exhorbitant is a state of mind. If you bid $100 dollars to make sure you win and the other person is thinking the same thing and bids $90 with 1 second left in the auction then you will end up paying 90.25

That's why Steve said "snipe using the most you are willing to pay"...which is miles away from exhorbitant.

So if you're thinking "$40 is the most I would pay for this print, anything higher would be exhorbitant" then snipe at $40, and if the other bidder comes in at $28 you will pay 28.25 for it. If they win the auction by bidding over your $40 bid, you're comfortable with the knowledge they paid to much for it.



>Is there anything I'm overlooking here? Is there a way I will get stuck paying the exhorbitantly high price? That's what I don't want to happen!! I want to get the Print for as little money as possible (the first bid price is $14.49 -- no bidders yet).

Someone's gotta win!

That's the truth! And the winner is nearly always the one with the highest bid. So if $39.37 was the most you wanted to spend for that print, it may have "really hurt" that someone beat you out in the closing seconds, but that someone wanted the print just as much as you did and was willing to pay more for it. I doubt very much, by the way, that the person was actually aware of your bid. It just so happened that there was another sniper lying in wait who cut it a little closer to the ending time.

If you post a "ridiculously high max bid" that is more than you are truly willing to spend, then you run the risk of having to pay it, or a sum close to it. You can reduce this danger by researching your opponent (which I always do in setting my max bid), but the fact remains that if you bid more than you're willing to spend, you have a chance of being forced to pay that amount. Just remember, there will always be another time, another print just like the "one that got away" up for auction on eBay. What's your hurry?

Hi again Steve: Okay, so I'm still learning, that's very obvious! Sometimes I have PTA(aka Part-Timers Alzheimers)and brain drain too. Looking at all these other bidder's histories is making me see double!

Steve, can you give a quick class on Researching Your Opponent 101? Can you tell us the best and fastest ways to do this research? What are we looking at when we do go into the Opponent's Bid History? Is it good to look at wins & losses. Do you look at time of day they bid, how much they bid, what country their bidding from, etc.? Remember, we're Newbies, we know nuttin, so treat us like the beginners we are, spare no detail! Know I'm spending way too much time trying to decipher the bidding strategy of others. Can you give some tips on how YOU go about doing this?

Any other Senior Snipers out there that want to chime in, please do. Give us your feedback too. How do you Research Your Opponent's Bidding Strategy and what tips can you pass on to other Newbies?

Thanks so much for giving the class! ~shellstoop

Gads, see I'm still learning how to use Instant Graemlins. I only got the Phrase there not the graphic icon, poop!

Hi, shellstoop. You asked several questions, as follows:

"What are we looking at when we do go into the Opponent's Bid History?"

In the first place, it's good that you know the other bidders have bid histories. A lot of newbies don't know that. The information can be located off the Search function, "By Bidder". Put the username or e-mail address of the person you want to research in the indicated box and be sure to put a dot in the little circle that will let you include closed auctions. That's where most of your information will be found. OK, what are you looking at? Every bid, win or lose, by the person you're checking out for the last 30 days. But you don't have to go crosseyed looking at each and every auction on the record. Read on....

Is it good to look at wins & losses?

I always pick some wins and some losses; I look for different things. With the wins, I go to the bid history off the individual auction page and see whether my guy is also a sniper, and if so, how late in the auction he tends to bid. I also check to see how much he bids when he snipes, and whether he does another bid if his first one is too low. (It's possible to do three or four snipes in ten seconds manually if you know how, but that's for another lesson.) Does he always bid in an odd amount, like $35.71, $40.71, etc.? That gives you the odd amount he uses plus the bid increment he uses. Are any of his wins the result of a second bid after being outbid? If not, you know you only have to beat him once. OK, for the losses, the main thing you're looking for is how easily your opponent gives up, and what his upper bid range is. Notice the amount of his highest bid in an auction he lost, preferably an auction where he wasn't even close to the winning bid. That's the range you may have to beat, depending on the value of the item and/or how badly you want that widgit you're planning to snipe.

Do you look at time of day they bid, how much they bid, what country their bidding from, etc.?

Time of day, no, because it doesn't matter. The auction closes at the same time for everybody, in all time zones. How much they bid, yes, please see above. What country, no, because it doesn't make a difference.

See how easy it is?

Shellstoop, you'll notice that I'm not a Senior Sniper. That's because AS hasn't decided to apply that tag to anyone.

I put up the answers to your questions as posed under your post. Interested persons can find it by clicking on "Search" at the top of this page, and entering "Researching your Opposition 101" in the space provided. If you want to restrict your search to just my note, put "Steve" in the "author" box.

Steve, I know you don't have the AS tag of Senior Sniper, but we all know YOUshould!

Thanks so much for taking the time to answer and so quickly too! I didn't want to restrict the post just to you. I want it for all interested Newbies to be able to see too.

When you find the time, maybe you can better delve into Bid Folders next, why to set them up and how best to utilize them. I'm wondering, for instance, if I should set them up for buying Stamps? Your input is highly regarded, as always!

Lastly, the reason I got into AS in the first place was because of trying timeBlaster for eBay. Try as I might, I can't seem to get my report programs to function properly.
I'm a Senior, so bear with me, oh, and maybe that explains my problem, huh?! No really, I was doing better searching on eBay BEFORE timeBlaster and now I'm getting no results on my searches with timeBlaster. Can you assist me with this, by any chance? I've put myself back thru the Tutorial at least 6 different times and it's not helping. I've looked at the "few" sample reports and they are not helping either. My subjects are Antique Prints, Cigarette Cards, Color Postcards & Stamps. I won't bore you with details until you let me know what you think?

~s.

Sorry, shellstoop, I don't know anything about either of those features. I'm a senior too, and complex things only confuse me. Besides, I don't want more than one item of a kind in my collection, and the sort of things I bid on rarely come on eBay in multiples.

Maybe someone who's less electronically challenged than I am can come to your assistance.

Steve: I do have PTA today! I meant Bid Folders using AS.

I've been playing around with timeBLASTER some more and am actually getting too much now. I've tweaked and tweaked till I can't stand tweaking no more! Thanks, I'll contact timeBlaster. They should have to help me before I purchase their software anyway.

I thought Bid Folders were created to put a bunch of the same snipes all under one category? Guess I'm not understanding the past postings I read then? I also read about specifying the number of auctions you win in the folder before it will terminate the rest of your snipes. Maybe that's where the multiples of the same widgit come into play? I'm like you, usually only buy one of something.

Thanks Steve, if Bid Folders aren't your forte, someone else can step in and answer instead.

If I recall correctly, bid folders are to keep your snipes for pink widgits separate from your snipes for yellow widgits, etc. Bid groups, on the other hand, are set up to keep bidding until you win one widgit, then stop. I don't use either capability.

However, there's an "exam" for all those who studied "Researching Your Opponent 101". Go look your own bidding record up and see what it tells you about your bidding habits and patterns. How would you plan a snipe bid against an opponent like yourself?

Just wanted everyone to know that may be reading this chatter, that I did go directly to timeBlaster and they are fantastic in delivering service! They set me up with a Customer Support tech. that's spending the time to help me with my report searches. I knew right off I wanted the software when I saw the good-sized pictures & bidding information it produces. The PICTURES are worth a thousand words! What used to take too much of my time, opening up each item to see a picture, rather than a list of Item Titles, is presented 3.5 times the size of thumbnail images! Love the ability to look over new offerings quickly, slot ones I don't want to "Ignore" and never have to see them again. Really like the fact that all my wins are detailed with photos of the products, item#, initial selling price, my winning bid amount ... and is available to me "forever" too.

You'd think with all the time I spend looking at eBay searches that I'd sign on for something like timeBlaster in a New York minute. The price seems very reasonable and you can buy it on eBay for $39.95 -- but broadband capability is recommended although it's not required. Just my luck I'm moving at the end of the month to a remote location where neither cable nor DSL is available!

Anybody on AuctionSniper using timeBlaster with a 56K dial-up? How 'bout some feedback?

Steve, I'm one of those! Have 56k dial-up, but expect my connection speed is 25.6 kbps. Horribly slow, huh? That's another reason I got AS!

FYI, timeBlaster is great thus far, just needed help tweaking my searches.

~s

Thanks, shellstoop! I have no idea what the actual kbps rate will be on my new connection. I've had nothing but optical cable during the time I've been online and dial-up will be a new experience for me.

Hmm, I think you will like the 2 new tabs we'll be adding in the next 2 weeks then.

Thanks, Sara B. That'll be just about the right timing for me.

Good luck with your new set-up, Steve.
Thought I should point out, unlike you, who still likes to manually bid on eBay, I rely on AS to do the majority of my bids. Only rarely do I try to manually bid. I figure I've gone to all the trouble to scope out the competition and study their bidding strategy, I'm going to use the AS snipes I've set up. Besides, I've had AOL disconnect on me numerous times (without forewarning) and then there's my connection which you NOW know is poky. AS is making it possible for me to compete against those with optical cable and snipe capabilities too. I've actually been winning so many of my bids, I'm having to curb my activity a little. Otherwise, I need to win the lottery to keep up what I'm doing! HaHa!

Thanks for your good wishes. I'll probably do less manual sniping with the new lashup, but I'm taking care to sign on with a 24/7 ISP that won't disconnect, with or without warning. It costs a bit more than the $9.95 per month that some bargain ISPs are advertising but it's much more reliable. And anyway, after fiber optic cable ANYTHING is cheaper!

You might look into sattelite for broadband if DSL and Cable are not options. When we moved here we had nothing but dialup at 28.8 and I almost lost my mind. Then ISDN became available (expensive and a royal PITA). FINALLY Cable modems came to town right when I was reasarching sattelite. (DSL wasn't an option, we were too far away). Personally, I don't think I could stand not having a broadband connection anymore. Good luck with your move!

http://members.ebay.com/aboutme/marilynsattic/

Thanks, Marilyn. I'm limping along on something a bit more than 28.8 but probably not the full 56K. DSL and cable are myths in these backwoods. I have satellite for television but not internet. But that's OK. The whole pace of life is slower here anyway.

The move went fine, thanks.