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Comments on ebay auctions

G Guest
Ebay auctions are not real auctions, they are more like a game of poker. For example the best auction to bid on is one where no one else has bid. Then all lurkers will bid at the last minute and the high bid will win.
Also Ebay keeps the bidding "secret" until the auction is over. Actually the bidding is not secret, anyone can track an auction periodically and discover the current bid and time and person. Smart enough people can and probably do have software to do just this.
The best auction to bid on is one with no bids and you are the only lurker. Then AS assures you of the lowest win. If there are 2 lurkers, then you may get into a sniping contest. This is bad because one of you will have paid the highest price.
As to whether it is advisable to bid at all, that is an open question. One tactic which some bidders use is to place a high bid and then let proxy bidding bid the item up. This tends to scare off up other bidders. Once they have placed a bid however, they have revealed themselves and they are no longer a lurker. You would like to know how high their max bid is, so you can decide whether to over-ride it with a snipe. It is always possible to incrementally bid up the price to reveal the high bid. The disadvantage of doing this is that there is a 50% probability that you will end up being the high bidder. You never want to be the high bidder, because anyone can then snipe you; alternatively you may not want to be stuck with that high bid.
One technique is to bid up the price incrementally to a price you are comfortable with. Then if you revealed the high bid without becoming the high bidder you can decide whether to over-ride it with a snipe. This is a 50% crap shoot, but the odds are better than the slots.
If there are 2 or more bidders besides yourself, you should probably look for another auction. If there are 2 lurkers , one of you will get creamed. If there are 2 active bidders you will have to nibble at each of them to get their high bid. That leaves you with a 75% probability of ending up high bidder where you don't want to be. Of course you can always just post a snipe with your comfortable price. This usually ends up way low to the actual price if there are 2 or more bidders.
If there are mathenaticians among you Ebay offers an excellent example to study with continuous game theory. There are probably other strategies to the ones I have given above which give even better results.
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I inkadinka (Guest)
Hi Friar,
That sounds to me like alot of hard thinking and figuring stuff out. Confused
Just put one bid in AS for as much as you are willing to spend and forget about it. Big Grin
Have you put AS up in your 'LINKS'yet? Makes the whole process a 'cake walk'. Cool

'If you're not worried, you're not paying attention.'
FT Friar Tuck (Guest)
Well, that's certainly true. What happens to me is that I see an item for 4.99 with a couple of bids on it. The item has sold previously for $50. When I don't bid on the item, I often see it sold for 7.99. That bidder probably put in a bid for $45.00. Now seeing that bid of 7.99 I might be tempted to put in a snipe at $30 which would be a waste of time. It helps to know what the competition is.

I might mention that ebay apparently does not approve of raising the bid incrementally, a process they call "shill bidding", for which they can disbar you. I don't see anything wrong with trying to find out what the competing bids actually are though. You won't increase your cost in any event.

To avoid being stuck with the high bid, try to arrange that your bids come in at 14.99, 19.99 etc to reveal a bid at an even dollar amount.
S Steve (Guest)
Friar Tuck writes, 'I might mention that ebay apparently does not approve of raising the bid incrementally, a process they call "shill bidding"...'

EBay doesn't approve of bidding up your own item for sale, or doing it on behalf of a partner, spouse, or friend. That's called "shilling" for an item. If there's no connection between you and the seller, go ahead...bid as many increments as you like. Smile
GG go get 'um (Guest)
It's been my experience in 4 years of bidding that most buyers don't place even money bids. Try reasearching the current bidders, go to their feedback, click on some of their recent wins, find some that have more than one bidder, check the bid history to find out what they bid and how they bid. You can even go to search, type in their UID, find out what they've bid on in the last 30 days and research that way. By inching up the bid by minumum increments, you are giving yourself away as very interested. You're going to be at the computer anyway if you were to bid the item up, so spend some time and do a little "secret" researching. You may even find the same or similar item they have bid on recently and HOW much they bid. Eek
GG go get 'um (Guest)
I think they call it "sizing up your opponet" in sports. (See above comments) In poker, it would be called "tells". (The increasing bid by minimum increment). I can usually tell if a bidder is inexperienced by checking bid history of the item and see not only a low feedback rating, but they bid numerous times to catch the high bidder. They are the ones I look out for, and usually won't bid on that item because, the bidding will get out of hand and go way over what the item's worth. These bidder's attract other inexperienced bidders who generate a bidding war. You would be possibly cutting your own throat if you try to find out what the high bid is this way.

I tried AS on a whim and have decided I LOVE IT! I still do my research and place my snipes accordingly. Win some, loose some, there's always tomorrow, and hopefully a better price! Eek
GG go get 'um (Guest)
I must be getting old, keep forgetting stuff. EBay has a phrase for items with a lot of bids, it's called a "hot item". Every bid that's placed, be it 1 or 50, by the same bidder is counted as a bid. If you bid up by increments and there were 2 bids before you started, you place 10 increment bids to catch the high bidder, there are now 12 bids on that item even tho you are 1 bidder. Inexperienced bidders now see an item with 12 bids and WOW, this must be something for so many to be bidding on it! They must know something I don't. This entices them to bid and it snowballs. I've seen $3 items go for over $50 because of this. Better to do your silent research. Eek
R Rick (Guest)
I'm sure others have done this (at least I hope they have).

When I went thru the wasted period of my youth doing proxy bids, sometimes I would make an auction a "hot item" (30 bids). If you're top bidder and above the next increment, it is very cheap to do. One can place 100 proxy bids by increasing your last max bid by 1 cent. 100 bids only increases your top bid by $1.00. 200 bids (well, you get the idea).

Sometimes this would cause other bidders some confusion: want to bid; want to run away. Had one seller cancel the auction because he thought I needed medication (good call).

This DOES require a certain amount of dedication, as there is some time involved in placing 100 or 200 bids. But if you're a sicko, time is relative. And if you're bored, time is subjective.

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