Reply to "Why did it snipe early and cost me $13 more?"

quote:

Originally posted by MrPete:
I'm just an occasional sniper, but have a bit of serious experience with computers, internet and such.

Here's an attempt at explaining in simple terms why it is difficult if not impossible for AS to accomplish the goal we desire (i.e. we want AS to always guess the exact right time to get your bid in so as to eliminate followup bids.)

The problem has everything to do with unpredictable delays.

For my example, may I introduce AShley, an AuctionSniper princess, and PBjelly, a normal eBay buyer.

I also want you to meet Hal, my name for the "farm" of eBay computers. Depending on what is going on, Hal might be happy to handle your request within one second of having received it...or he may be simply overloaded, and not get to your request for a minute or more.

And then there's our hero, ASpect, the AuctionSniper computer "farm".

While ASpect and Hal have a great working relationship, they're not exactly intimate. After all, they don't work for the same company (and if they did, nepotism is highly discouraged at eBay! ) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that Hal would never let on just how tired he really is. It wouldn't be polite! So ASpect just pays attention to Hal's responses, each time ASpect submits a bid or asks for info on an auction item.

As our story begins one fine Sunday evening, ASpect has been busily sending bids to Hal. Hal started out in a good mood, but as the evening wears on, ASpect notes that Hal is getting tired.

Hal's average response climbs upwards of a minute, hitting 90 seconds at one point. Sure, he occasionally catches up for a few minutes and handles all of ASpect's requests within two seconds. But wouldn't you know it -- a truckload of bids arrives from a penguin colony in Antarctica, and again Hal is buried.

ASpect, insightful partner that she is, is happy to be patient with Hal. So she adjusts her bidding times to match Hal's workload.

It's a delicate process: this evening, she knows that one moment Hal is responding within a couple of seconds, but the next request might be lined up behind that truckload of penguin bids, and ASpect's bids won't be processed for almost two minutes!

So, zero hour approaches. AShley the AS princess is out having dinner with a friend, but looks at her watch and is excited to see that the auction on her favorite model airplane will be closing.

PBjelly also likes that airplane, and has been staying close to his computer, watching his airplane bid (and a few others) all afternoon.

Tminus-600 seconds: PBjelly is the top bidder right now, at $4.95. Hal's average response time is 90 seconds.

Tminus-300 seconds: Hal's peak response time is down to 60 seconds; average response is 45; minimum is 1 second. ASpect is watching carefully; right now she's adding a lead time of 50 seconds to all bids.

Tminus-180 seconds: Hal briefly catches up! Peak response is 30 seconds; average is 10. ASpect knows this game -- it won't last long on a Sunday evening, and there's no way to predict when things might change.

Tminus-120 seconds: Sure enough, Hal's "break" is over. A bid submitted at -180 still hasn't been processed and it is 60 seconds later. Whew, good thing ASpect is on the ball!

Tminus-60: AShley *really* wants that model airplane. ASpect submits AShley's high bid, of $15.67, to be sure Hal will see it in time.

Tminus-55: Whoops! Hal caught up again! Wouldn't you know. There's AShley's bid, out there in public for all (including PBjelly) to see.

Tminus-45: PBjelly watches, horrified, as he sees his high bid vaporize. Who is this fiend, AShley, who dares intrude on his acquisition of the perfect model airplane??!!

Tminus-40: PBjelly reacts, and prepares a bid of $14.95 -- "HAH! That'll show her!"... he smugly presses the BID NOW button.

Tminus-30: But Hal is no longer idling. A large crew of polar bears got in line ahead of PBjelly's bid. The crew is large in more than number!

Tminus-20: It's a VERY big polar bear crew. PBjelly is sweating... where's that bid response? "It can't be! I MUST WIN THAT AIRPLANE!"

Tminus-10: The polar bears have almost all been processed... but will Hal get to PBjelly's bid in time? Will PBjelly win? Will AShley overcome? And what about Naomi? Stay tuned!!!!

Tminus-5: Hooray! PBjelly's browser screen redraws at last. The winning bid! "Yessss!!!!.... NNNOooooooooooo!!!! How can this be? ASley outbid me and won it for $15.45? Arrghhh..." PBjelly stomps off to the kitchen to make his namesake sandwich.

Tplus-1 hour: AShley checks her IM and finds that she won the airplane. Paid more than she'd hoped, but at least she beat out that nasty PBjelly guy.

So there you have it. From moment to moment, computer loads can vary widely. It is impossible for ASpect to predict how quickly Hal will respond to any given bid. As those investing companies say, the past is not a sure predictor of the future. Just be glad ASpect adjusts the timing for you, to avoid *missing* your auction deadline! That would be much worse.

And no, you can't do better on your own. ASpect is submitting lots of bids all the time, and knows the average, peak, and minimum response time at any given moment. You don't know that; you can't know that. Not only that, but those details might be different in a few seconds.

Consider: What if PBjelly's bid had not been processed before the deadline? Then AShley would have won for $5.20 instead of $15.45. But she still would have won.

That's why AS is so wonderful.

And... I bid you adieu! Back again someday...